Recently, the global rare metal market has been "turned upside down" by a piece of news: the price of rare metal bismuth has skyrocketed, and in just three months, it has increased by 7 times! This surge in prices has instantly become the focus of the global economy, catching many industries off guard. The core factor that triggered this "price storm" is China's export control policy on bismuth.
China, as the "superpower" of global bismuth production, accounts for an astonishing 81% of the world's bismuth production, and is a well-deserved industry leader. On February 4 this year, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued an announcement to implement export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium-related items. This policy is like a heavy hammer, completely breaking the original supply and demand balance in the global bismuth market. Since the implementation of the policy, China's bismuth exports have dropped sharply, and the export volume in March has directly returned to zero, which has caused overseas markets that have long relied on Chinese imports to suddenly fall into the dilemma of "no rice to cook", and the supply gap has expanded rapidly like a black hole.
Bismuth, this seemingly unfamiliar rare metal, actually plays a vital role in the modern industrial system. In the field of electronics, bismuth is often used to manufacture semiconductor packaging materials, electronic ceramics, solders, etc. As electronic products continue to develop towards miniaturization and high performance, the demand for bismuth-based materials is growing. For example, in the packaging of semiconductor chips, bismuth-based solder, with its excellent physical properties, can ensure a stable and reliable electrical connection between the chip and the circuit board, and is a key material to ensure the quality and performance of electronic products.
In the pharmaceutical industry, bismuth compounds are widely used. Bismuth agents such as bismuth subnitrate and potassium bismuth citrate are often used to treat digestive system diseases such as gastric ulcers and duodenal ulcers. They can effectively inhibit gastric acid secretion, protect gastric mucosa, and promote ulcer healing. They are "good news" for many patients with gastric diseases.
Bismuth is also an important material in the nuclear industry. In nuclear reactors, bismuth can be used as a coolant. It has a high boiling point and good thermal conductivity. It can efficiently take away the heat generated by the reactor and ensure the safe and stable operation of the reactor.
The crazy rise in bismuth prices has had a huge impact on related industries. Taking the coatings industry as an example, bismuth yellow pigment (the main components are bismuth vanadate + bismuth molybdate) is an important environmentally friendly yellow pigment, widely used in automotive paints, architectural coatings, plastic coloring and other fields. Since bismuth is the key raw material for the production of bismuth yellow pigment, the surge in bismuth prices has caused the production costs of pigment companies to rise sharply. According to industry data, the rise in bismuth prices has caused the production cost of bismuth yellow pigment to increase by nearly 90%, which has severely compressed the profit margins of many pigment manufacturers, and some companies are even facing losses.
Electronics manufacturers were not spared. For those electronics manufacturers that use a large amount of bismuth-based solder, the sharp rise in raw material costs directly weakened the market competitiveness of enterprises. Some small electronics manufacturers were unable to bear the cost pressure and had to reduce orders or even stop production.
Faced with the continued surge in bismuth prices, all parties in the market are also actively seeking countermeasures. On the supply side, in addition to China, other bismuth producing countries and regions in the world have begun to increase mining and production efforts in an attempt to fill the supply gap caused by China's export controls. For example, bismuth mining companies in Australia, Bolivia and other countries have increased investment and expanded production capacity. However, due to the relatively concentrated distribution of bismuth ore resources and the fact that the release of new production capacity requires a certain period of time, it is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the global supply tension in the short term.
On the demand side, related companies are also working hard to adjust their product structure and find alternative materials to bismuth. In the field of electronic solders, some companies have begun to try to use tin-silver-copper alloys to replace bismuth-based solders, but these alternative materials still have many problems in terms of performance and cost, and it is difficult to fully meet the production needs of companies.
For the majority of investors, the surge in bismuth prices has also brought new investment opportunities and challenges. In the A-share market, the stock prices of listed companies related to bismuth have been active recently. For example, Gaoneng Environment (603588), whose wholly-owned subsidiary Jingyuan Gaoneng is the largest refined bismuth producer in China, will produce more than 4,000 tons in 2024, accounting for about 37% of the global supply. Affected by the positive impact of the rise in bismuth prices, the company's stock price has risen sharply in recent months. But at the same time, the sharp fluctuations in bismuth prices have also increased investment risks. Investors need to pay close attention to market trends and make investment decisions prudently.
Looking ahead, the price trend of bismuth is still full of uncertainty. On the one hand, China's export control policy is still ongoing, and the tight global bismuth supply situation is difficult to be fundamentally improved in the short term. On the other hand, with the continuous advancement of science and technology, the application of bismuth in emerging fields may be further expanded, which will provide strong support for the demand for bismuth. However, if the global economic growth slows down, leading to shrinking demand in downstream industries, bismuth prices may also face correction pressure.
This "crazy journey" of bismuth prices not only tests every link in the global bismuth industry chain, but also rings the alarm bell for our strategic resource security. With the increasingly fierce global resource competition, how to ensure the stable supply of key resources has become an important issue that countries need to solve urgently. What do you think of this bismuth price storm? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.